Regression Toward Mediocrity in Economic Stature

This paper provides estimates of the correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons. Intergenerational data from the National Longitudinal Survey are used. Earlier studies, conducted for the United States, report elasticities of children's earnings with respect to parent's earnings of 0.2 or less, suggesting extensive intergenerational mobility. These estimates, however, are biased.downward by error-contaminated measures of lifetime economic status. Estimates presented in this paper correct for the problem of measurement error and find the intergenerational correlation in income to be on the order of 0.4. This suggests considerably less intergenerational mobility than previously believed. Copyright…