Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions
Stanford University · Duke University
Abstract
Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100.…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 53.79
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 52
Authors
4Topics & keywords
- Extinction (optical mineralogy)
- Threatened species
- Climate change
- Range (aeronautics)
- Ecology
- Conservation biology
- Environmental science
- Global warming
- Climate action