Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: Systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry

Knowledge of the atmospheric chemistry of reactive greenhouse gases is needed to accurately quantify the relationship between human activities and climate, and to incorporate uncertainty in our projections of greenhouse gas abundances. We present a method for estimating the fraction of greenhouse gases attributable to human activities, both currently and for future scenarios. Key variables used to calculate the atmospheric chemistry and budgets of major non‐CO 2 greenhouse gases are codified along with their uncertainties, and then used to project budgets and abundances under the new climate‐change scenarios. This new approach uses our knowledge of changing abundances and lifetimes to estimate current total…

• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  Awards: NNX09AJ47G, NNX08AR25G