Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations

The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of…

• NS
  National Science Foundation
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

  Award: NNX12AB75G
• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Award: NA10OAR4320142