Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called 'early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding,…

• NS
  National Science Foundation
• AS
  Arizona State University
• SF
  Santa Fe Institute
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Award: NE/F005474/1
• UO
  University of East Anglia
• AR
  AXA Research Fund
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/F005474/1, NE/F005474/1