Patient and Caregiver Characteristics and Nursing Home Placement in Patients With Dementia

To develop and validate a prognostic model to determine the comprehensive predictors of placement among an ethnically diverse population of patients with dementia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Medicare Alzheimer's Disease Demonstration and Evaluation study, a prospective study at 8 sites in the United States, with enrollment between December 1989 and December 1994 of 5788 community-living persons with advanced dementia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to nursing home placement throughout a 36-month follow-up period, assessed by interview and review of Medicare records, and its association with patient and caregiver characteristics, obtained by interview at enrollment.

Patients were divided into a development (n = 3859) and validation (n = 1929) cohort. In the development cohort, the Kaplan-Meier estimates of nursing home placement throughout 1, 2, and 3 years were 22%, 40%, and 52%, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, patient characteristics that were associated with nursing home placement were as follows: black ethnicity (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.74), Hispanic ethnicity (HR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.28-0.56) (both ethnicities were inversely associated with placement), living alone (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.49-2.02), 1 or more dependencies in activities of daily living (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.60), high cognitive impairment (for Mini-Mental Status Examination score