The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically…

• CD
  Comunidad de Madrid
• MD
  Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
• CC
  CYTED Ciencia y Tecnología para el Desarrollo