Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability

Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic’s response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of centuryand multidecadal-scale observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice is used in combination with ECHAM4 and HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean global model simulations in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability. We show that two pronounced twentieth-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two…

• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China
• NF
  Norges Forskningsråd
• BF
  Bjerknessenteret for klimaforskning, Universitetet i Bergen