Constructing design weather data for future climates

We develop a method, here called ‘morphing’, to produce design weather data for building thermal simulations that accounts for future changes to climate. Morphing combines present-day observed weather data with results from climate models. The procedure yields weather time series that encapsulate the average weather conditions of future climate scenarios, whilst preserving realistic weather sequences. In this sense the method ‘downscales’ coarse resolution climate model predictions to the fine spatial and temporal resolutions required for building thermal simulations. The morphing procedure is illustrated by application to CIBSE design weather years and climate change scenarios for the UK. Heating degree days…

• DF
  Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government