Present and future global distributions of the marine Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus

The Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus account for a substantial fraction of marine primary production. Here, we present quantitative niche models for these lineages that assess present and future global abundances and distributions. These niche models are the result of neural network, nonparametric, and parametric analyses, and they rely on >35,000 discrete observations from all major ocean regions. The models assess cell abundance based on temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, but the individual responses to these environmental variables differ for each lineage. The models estimate global biogeographic patterns and seasonal variability of cell abundance, with maxima in the warm…

• NS
  National Science Foundation
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• GA
  Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China
• CN
  Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
• AN
  Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica
• DO
  Division of Emerging Frontiers