Determinants of Long-Term Survival After Major Surgery and the Adverse Effect of Postoperative Complications

NSQIP data were merged with BIRLS to determine the vital status of 105,951 patients who underwent 8 types of operations performed between 1991 and 1999, providing an average follow up of 8 years. Logistic and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify the predictors of 30-day mortality and long-term survival, respectively.

The most important determinant of decreased postoperative survival was the occurrence, within 30 days postoperatively, of any one of 22 types of complications collected in the NSQIP. Independent of preoperative patient risk, the occurrence of a 30-day complication in the total patient group reduced median patient survival by 69%. The adverse effect of a complication on patient survival was also influenced by the operation type and was sustained even when patients who did not survive for 30 days were excluded from the analyses.