On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

In Merton (1981; hereafter referred to as Part I), one of us developed a basic model of markettiming forecasts where the forecaster predicts when stocks will outperform bonds and when bonds will outperform stocks but does not predict the magnitude of the superior performance. In that analysis, it was shown that the pattern of returns from successful market timing has an isomorphic correspondence to the pattern of returns from following certain option investment strategies where the implicit prices paid for the options are less than their fair or market values. This isomorphic correspondence was used to drive an equilibrium theory of value for market-timing forecasting skills. By analyzing how investors would…