Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions

Monsoon rainfall and tropical storms (TSs) impose great impacts on society, yet their seasonal predictions are far from successful. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is a prime circulation system affecting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and western North Pacific TS activities, but the sources of its variability and predictability have not been established. Here we show that the WPSH variation faithfully represents fluctuations of EASM strength (r = -0.92), the total TS days over the subtropical western North Pacific (r = -0.81), and the total number of TSs impacting East Asian coasts (r = -0.76) during 1979-2009. Our numerical experiment results establish that the WPSH variation is primarily…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: 1005599, AGS-1005599
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• MO
  Ministry of Education, Science and Technology

  Award: 2011-0021927
• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• JA
  Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology