Decision analysis for management judgment

Foreword / Lawrence D. Phillips -- How people make decisions involving multiple objectives -- Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART -- Introduction to probability -- Decision making under uncertainty -- Decision trees and influence diagrams -- Applying simulation to decision problems -- Revising judgments in the light of new information -- Biases in probability assessment -- Methods for eliciting probabilities -- Risk and uncertainty management -- Decisions involving groups of individuals -- Resource allocation and negotiation problems -- Decision framing and cognitive inertia -- Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty -- The analytic hierarchy process -- Alternative…