Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation

Abstract The areas beneath the relative (or receiver) operating characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves can be used as summary measures of forecast quality, but statistical significance tests for these areas are conducted infrequently in the atmospheric sciences. A development of signal‐detection theory, the ROC curve has been widely applied in the medical and psychology fields where significance tests and relationships to other common statistical methods have been established and described. This valuable literature appears to be largely unknown to the atmospheric sciences where applications of ROC and related techniques are becoming more common. This paper presents a survey of that…

• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration