Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Award: FP7/2007-2013
• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• DF
  Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government

  Award: GA01101
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: ncas10009, NE/I020792/1
• MO
  Met Office

  Award: GA01101
• BF
  Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: ncas10009, NE/I020792/1
• GC
  Global Change Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg