Predicting 15-Year Prostate Cancer Specific Mortality After Radical Prostatectomy

Using Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis we modeled clinical and pathological data, and followup information on 11,521 patients treated with radical prostatectomy at a total of 4 academic centers from 1987 to 2005 to predict prostate cancer specific mortality. The model was validated on 12,389 patients treated at a separate institution during the same period. Median followup in the modeling and validation cohorts was 56 and 96 months, respectively.

The overall 15-year prostate cancer specific mortality rate was 7%. Primary and secondary Gleason grade 4-5 (each p