How to diagnose rheumatoid arthritis early: A prediction model for persistent (erosive) arthritis

To develop a clinical model for the prediction, at the first visit, of 3 forms of arthritis outcome: self-limiting, persistent nonerosive, and persistent erosive arthritis.

A standardized diagnostic evaluation was performed on 524 consecutive, newly referred patients with early arthritis. Potentially diagnostic determinants obtained at the first visit from the patient's history, physical examination, and blood and imaging testing were entered in a logistic regression analysis. Arthritis outcome was recorded at 2 years' followup. The discriminative ability of the model was expressed as a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC).