articleProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesMar 4, 2013BRONZE OA

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

LCL. C. SmithSRScott R. Stephenson

University of California, Los Angeles

PubMed
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Abstract

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Arctic
  • Sea ice
  • Arctic ice pack
  • Climate change
  • Oceanography
  • Environmental science
  • The arctic
  • Navigability
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Life below water
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