Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
University of Exeter · The University of Melbourne · +4 more institutions
Abstract
Abstract In the context of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, most climate simulations use prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore do not interactively include the effect of carbon cycle feedbacks. However, the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario has additionally been run by earth system models with prescribed CO2 emissions. This paper analyzes the climate projections of 11 earth system models (ESMs) that performed both emission-driven and concentration-driven RCP8.5 simulations. When forced by RCP8.5 CO2 emissions, models simulate a large spread in atmospheric CO2; the simulated 2100 concentrations range between 795 and 1145 ppm. Seven out of the 11…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 46.04
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 78
Authors
7Topics & keywords
- Coupled model intercomparison project
- Environmental science
- Representative Concentration Pathways
- Context (archaeology)
- Radiative forcing
- Climatology
- Greenhouse gas
- Climate model
- Climate action