Estimating Risk of Recurrence in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer After Total Thyroidectomy and Radioactive Iodine Remnant Ablation: Using Response to Therapy Variables to Modify the Initial Risk Estimates Predicted by the New American Thyroid Association Staging System

A risk-adapted approach to management of thyroid cancer requires risk estimates that change over time based on response to therapy and the course of the disease. The objective of this study was to validate the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk of recurrence staging system and determine if an assessment of response to therapy during the first 2 years of follow-up can modify these initial risk estimates.

This retrospective review identified 588 adult follicular cell-derived thyroid cancer patients followed for a median of 7 years (range 1-15 years) after total thyroidectomy and radioactive iodine remnant ablation. Patients were stratified according to ATA risk categories (low, intermediate, or high) as part of initial staging. Clinical data obtained during the first 2 years of follow-up (suppressed thyroglobulin [Tg], stimulated Tg, and imaging studies) were used to re-stage each patient based on response to initial therapy (excellent, acceptable, or incomplete). Clinical outcomes predicted by initial ATA risk categories were compared with revised risk estimates obtained after response to therapy variables were used to modify the initial ATA risk estimates.