articleBiogeosciencesMar 11, 2010GOLD OA

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

MSM. SteinacherFJFortunat JoosTLThomas L. FrölicherLBLaurent BoppPCPatricia Cadule

University of Bern · Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research · +7 more institutions

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Abstract

Abstract. Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Environmental science
  • Productivity
  • Primary production
  • Carbon cycle
  • Photic zone
  • Arctic
  • Primary productivity
  • Latitude
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Life below water
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