Risk and Cumulative Risk of Stroke Recurrence

Studies reporting cumulative risk of recurrence after first-ever stroke were identified using electronic databases and by manually searching relevant journals and conference abstracts. Overall cumulative risks of stroke recurrence at 30 days and 1, 5, and 10 years after first stroke were calculated, and analyses for heterogeneity were conducted. A Weibull model was fitted to the risk of stroke recurrence of the individual studies and pooled estimates were calculated with 95% CI.

Sixteen studies were identified, of which 13 studies reported cumulative risk of stroke recurrence in 9115 survivors. The pooled cumulative risk was 3.1% (95% CI, 1.7-4.4) at 30 days, 11.1% (95% CI, 9.0-13.3) at 1 year, 26.4% (95% CI, 20.1-32.8) at 5 years, and 39.2% (95% CI, 27.2-51.2) at 10 years after initial stroke. Substantial heterogeneity was found at all time points. This study also demonstrates a temporal reduction in 5-year risk of stroke recurrence from 32% to 16.2% across the studies.