Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75 %) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, but there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere, which could indicate deficiencies with the ozone precursor emissions. Compared to the present day…

• NE
  National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center
• CF
  Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: NE/K001329/1, ncas10009, NE/I008063/1
• NF
  Norges Forskningsråd
• SF
  Scheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: ncas10009, NE/K001329/1, NE/I008063/1
• LL
  Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• SN
  SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory