Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
University of East Anglia · Tyndall Centre · +4 more institutions
Abstract
The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 126.96
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 115
Authors
7- TMTimothy M. LentonCorresponding
University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre
- HHHermann Held
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- EKElmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Carnegie Mellon University
- JWJim W. Hall
Tyndall Centre, Newcastle University
- WLWolfgang Lucht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Topics & keywords
- Tipping point (physics)
- Earth system science
- Climate system
- Forcing (mathematics)
- Climate change
- Term (time)
- Computer science
- Risk analysis (engineering)
- Climate action