Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32-39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates…

• NS
  National Science Foundation
• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• GA
  Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
• WW
  World Wildlife Fund
• P
  PepsiCo
• GM
  General Mills
• K
  Kellogg's
• MF
  McKnight Foundation
• GF
  Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment
• NC
  Nature Conservancy
• NS
  Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada