Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research · Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory · +4 more institutions
Abstract
How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 86.78
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 22
Authors
13- RSRichard SeagerCorresponding
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tel Aviv University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Columbia University
- MTMingfang Ting
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tel Aviv University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Columbia University
- IMIsaac M. Held
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tel Aviv University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Columbia University
- YKYochanan Kushnir
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tel Aviv University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Columbia University
- JLJian Lu
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tel Aviv University, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Columbia University
Topics & keywords
- Arid
- Climate change
- Climatology
- Climate model
- Geography
- Aridity index
- Environmental science
- Physical geography