Molecular Classification Identifies a Subset of Human Papillomavirus–Associated Oropharyngeal Cancers With Favorable Prognosis

Using real-time polymerase chain reaction for HPV16, we determined HPV16 viral load in a cohort of 79 OSCCs annotated with long-term patient follow-up. A tissue microarray including these cases was also analyzed for p53, p16, and Rb utilizing in situ quantitative protein expression analysis. Seventy-seven tumors were classified into a three-class model on the basis of p16 expression and HPV-DNA presence: class I, HPV-, p16 low; class II, HPV+, p16 low; and class III, HPV+, p16 high.

Sixty-one percent of OSCCs were HPV16+; HPV status alone was of no prognostic value for local recurrence and was barely significant for survival times. Overall survival was improved in class III (79%) compared with the other two classes (20% and 18%; P = .0095). Disease-free survival for the same class was 75% versus 15% and 13% (P = .0025). The 5-year local recurrence was 14% in class III versus 45% and 74% (P = .03). Only patients in class III had significantly lower p53 and Rb expression (P = .017 and .001, respectively). Multivariable survival analysis confirmed the prognostic value of the three-class model.