Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)--The Time-Independent Model

(WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation and include multifault ruptures, both limitations of UCERF2. The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously and from a broader range of data, using a system-level inversion that is both conceptually simple and exten-sible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is…