To die or not to die: early warnings of tree dieback in response to a severe drought

Summary Some disturbances can drive ecological systems to abrupt shifts between alternative stages (tipping points) when critical transitions occur. Drought‐induced tree death can be considered as a nonlinear shift in tree vigour and growth. However, at what point do trees become predisposed to drought‐related dieback and which factors determine this (tipping) point? We investigated these questions by characterizing the responses of three tree species, silver fir ( A bies alba ), S cots pine ( P inus sylvestris ) and Aleppo pine ( P inus halepensis ), to a severe drought event. We compared basal area increment ( BAI ) trends and responses to climate and drought in declining (very defoliated and dying) vs.…