Maximum Likelihood Inference of Geographic Range Evolution by Dispersal, Local Extinction, and Cladogenesis

In historical biogeography, model-based inference methods for reconstructing the evolution of geographic ranges on phylogenetic trees are poorly developed relative to the diversity of analogous methods available for inferring character evolution. We attempt to rectify this deficiency by constructing a dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC) model for geographic range evolution that specifies instantaneous transition rates between discrete states (ranges) along phylogenetic branches and apply it to estimating likelihoods of ancestral states (range inheritance scenarios) at cladogenesis events. Unlike an earlier version of this approach, the present model allows for an analytical solution to probabilities of…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: -0423641, 0331654, EF-0423641, 0614108, 0423641
• NE
  National Evolutionary Synthesis Center

  Awards: NSF EF-0423641, EF-0423641
• DO
  Division of Emerging Frontiers

  Awards: 0423641, EF-0423641