An Approximately Bayesian Delta-Rule Model Explains the Dynamics of Belief Updating in a Changing Environment

Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects follow these principles under a range of conditions. We show that the influence of an outcome depends on both the error made in predicting that outcome and the number of similar outcomes experienced previously. We also…

• ME
  McKnight Endowment Fund for Neuroscience
• AP
  Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
• MF
  McKnight Foundation
• NI
  National Institutes of Health
• NB
  NIH Blueprint for Neuroscience Research