Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Abstract Aim We aim to propose validated, spatially explicit hypotheses for the late Quaternary distribution of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and thereby provide a framework for integrating analyses of species and genetic diversity in the region. Location The Atlantic forest, stretching along the Brazilian coast. Methods We model the spatial range of the forest under three climatic scenarios (current climate, 6000 and 21,000 years ago) with BIOCLIM and MAXENT. Historically stable areas or refugia are identified as the set of grid cells for which forest presence is inferred in all models and time projections. To validate inferred refugia, we test whether our models are matched by the current distribution of…