Capacity Trends and Limits of Optical Communication Networks

Since the first deployments of fiber-optic communication systems three decades ago, the capacity carried by a single-mode optical fiber has increased by a staggering 10 000 times. Most of the growth occurred in the first two decades with growth slowing to ten times in the last decade. Over the same three decades, network traffic has increased by a much smaller factor of 100, but with most of the growth occurring in the last few years, when data started dominating network traffic. At the current growth rate, the next factor of 100 in network traffic growth will occur within a decade. The large difference in growth rates between the delivered fiber capacity and the traffic demand is expected to create a capacity…