Identifying Risk for Obesity in Early Childhood

Our aim with this study was to assist clinicians by estimating the predictive value of earlier levels of BMI status on later risk of overweight and obesity during the middle childhood and early adolescent years.

We present growth data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, a longitudinal sample of 1042 healthy US children in 10 locations. Born in 1991, their growth reflects the secular trend of increasing overweight/obesity in the population. Height and weight of participating children in the study were measured at 7 time points. We examined odds ratios for overweight and obesity at age 12 years comparing the frequency with which children did versus did not reach specific BMI percentiles in the preschool- and elementary-age periods. To explore the question of whether and when earlier BMI was predictive of weight status at age 12 years, we used logistic regression to obtain the predicted probabilities of being overweight or obese (BMI > or = 85%) at 12 years old on the basis of earlier BMI.