Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050

Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops-maize, rice, wheat, and soybean-that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We…

• NS
  National Science Foundation
• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• GA
  Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
• P
  PepsiCo
• GM
  General Mills