articleProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesDec 16, 2013BRONZE OA

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

JEJoshua ElliottDDDelphine DeryngCMChristoph MüllerKFKatja FrielerMKMarkus Konzmann

Argonne National Laboratory · University of Chicago · +23 more institutions

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Abstract

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Coupled model intercomparison project
  • Environmental science
  • Irrigation
  • Agriculture
  • Representative Concentration Pathways
  • Climate change
  • Agricultural productivity
  • Water resource management
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Zero hunger
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