Error and uncertainty in habitat models

Summary Species distribution models (habitat models) relate the occurrence or abundance of a species to environmental and/or geographical predictors that then allow predictions to be mapped across an entire region. These models are used in a range of policy settings such as managing greenhouse gases, biosecurity threats and conservation planning. Prediction errors are almost ubiquitous in habitat models. An understanding of the source, magnitude and pattern of these errors is essential if the models are to be used transparently in decision making. This study considered the sources of errors in habitat models. It divided them into two main classes, error resulting from data deficiencies and error introduced by…