Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Goddard Institute for Space Studies · National Aeronautics and Space Administration · +12 more institutions
Abstract
Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 219.51
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 95
Authors
17- CRCynthia RosenzweigCorresponding
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Columbia University
- JEJoshua Elliott
University of Chicago, Columbia University
- DDDelphine Deryng
University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre
- ACAlex C. Ruane
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Columbia University
- CMChristoph Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Topics & keywords
- Climate change
- Coupled model intercomparison project
- Climate extremes
- Environmental science
- Climatology
- Agriculture
- Climate model
- Global warming
- Climate action