Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the…

• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy
• CE
  California Energy Commission
• NO
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• OO
  Office of Science
• BO
  Bureau of Reclamation
• CF
  Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine