Overcredibility of molecular phylogenies obtained by Bayesian phylogenetics

Bayesian phylogenetics has recently been proposed as a powerful method for inferring molecular phylogenies, and it has been reported that the mammalian and some plant phylogenies were resolved by using this method. The statistical confidence of interior branches as judged by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis is generally higher than that as judged by bootstrap probabilities in maximum likelihood analysis, and this difference has been interpreted as an indication that bootstrap support may be too conservative. However, it is possible that the posterior probabilities are too high or too liberal instead. Here, we show by computer simulation that posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis can be…