Introducing the prebound effect: the gap between performance and actual energy consumption

German regulations for the thermal renovation of existing homes demand high thermal standards, which the government claims are technically and economically feasible. This paper examines existing data on 3400 German homes; their calculated energy performance ratings (EPR) are then plotted against the actual measured consumption. The results indicate that occupants consume, on average, 30% less heating energy than the calculated rating. This phenomenon is identified as the ‘prebound’ effect and increases with the calculated rating. The opposite phenomenon, the rebound effect, tends to occur for low-energy dwellings, where occupants consume more than the rating. A similar phenomenon has been recognized in recent…