The Metabolic Syndrome and 11-Year Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

To assess the magnitude of the association between the National Cholesterol Education Program's Third Adult Treatment Panel Report (ATP III) definition of the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease (CVD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Cox regression was used to estimate the relative risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke among 12,089 black and white middle-aged individuals in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

The metabolic syndrome was present in approximately 23% of individuals without diabetes or prevalent CVD at baseline. Over an average of 11 years of follow-up, 879 incident CHD and 216 ischemic stroke events occurred. Among the components of the metabolic syndrome, elevated blood pressure and low levels of HDL cholesterol exhibited the strongest associations with CHD. Men and women with the metabolic syndrome were approximately 1.5 and 2 times more likely to develop CHD than control subjects after adjustment for age, smoking, LDL cholesterol, and race/ARIC center (sex interaction P