Nomograms for Predicting Local Recurrence, Distant Metastases, and Overall Survival for Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer on the Basis of European Randomized Clinical Trials

The nomograms are able to predict events with a c-index for external validation of local recurrence (LR; 0.68), distant metastases (DM; 0.73), and overall survival (OS; 0.70). Pathologic staging is essential for accurate prediction of long-term outcome. Both preoperative CRT and adjuvant chemotherapy have an added value when predicting LR, DM, and OS rates. The stratification in risk groups allows significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for outcome.

The easy-to-use nomograms can predict LR, DM, and OS over a 5-year period after surgery. They may be used as decision support tools in future trials by using the three defined risk groups to select patients for postoperative chemotherapy and close follow-up (http://www.predictcancer.org).