Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations

Abstract Temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of global coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate extremes are expressed in terms of 20-yr return values of annual extremes of near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitation amounts. The simulated changes in extremes are documented for years 2046–65 and 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 in experiments with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B, and A2 emission scenarios. Overall, the climate models simulate present-day warm extremes reasonably well on the global…

• UD
  U.S. Department of Energy
• OO
  Office of Science
• CF
  Center for Neuroscience and Regenerative Medicine
• LL
  Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory