Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming
Planetary Science Institute · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · +1 more institution
Abstract
Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%. When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5%…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 24.14
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 38
Authors
4- DMDavid M. RompsCorresponding
Planetary Science Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- JTJacob T. Seeley
Planetary Science Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- DVDavid Vollaro
University at Albany, State University of New York
- JMJohn Molinari
University at Albany, State University of New York
Topics & keywords
- Lightning (connector)
- Convective available potential energy
- Environmental science
- Atmospheric electricity
- Global warming
- Precipitation
- Storm
- Meteorology
- Climate action
Funding
- NSNational Science FoundationAwards: DE-AC02-05CH11231, DGE1106400
- UDU.S. Department of EnergyAwards: -AC02-05CH11231, 05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02, DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02-
- SFScheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration
- OOOffice of ScienceAwards: AC02-05CH11231, -AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02
- ASAdvanced Scientific Computing ResearchAward: DE-AC02-05CH11231
- BABiological and Environmental ResearchAwards: 05CH11231, DE-AC02-05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231