Bayesian inference in ecology

Abstract Bayesian inference is an important statistical tool that is increasingly being used by ecologists. In a Bayesian analysis, information available before a study is conducted is summarized in a quantitative model or hypothesis: the prior probability distribution. Bayes’ Theorem uses the prior probability distribution and the likelihood of the data to generate a posterior probability distribution. Posterior probability distributions are an epistemological alternative to P ‐values and provide a direct measure of the degree of belief that can be placed on models, hypotheses, or parameter estimates. Moreover, Bayesian information‐theoretic methods provide robust measures of the probability of alternative…