What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?

Abstract Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean‐squared prediction error sense than no‐change forecasts. This result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price, as captured by the oil futures spread. This variability can be explained by the marginal convenience yield of oil inventories. Using a two‐country, multi‐period general equilibrium model of the spot and futures markets for crude oil we show that increased uncertainty about future oil supply shortfalls under plausible assumptions causes the spread to decline. Increased uncertainty also causes precautionary demand for oil to increase,…