Calculation of Average, Uncertainty Range, and Reliability of Regional Climate Changes from AOGCM Simulations via the “Reliability Ensemble Averaging” (REA) Method

The ''reliability ensemble averaging'' (REA) method for calculating average, uncertainty range, and a measure of reliability of simulated climate changes at the subcontinental scale from ensembles of different atmosphereocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is introduced. The method takes into account two ''reliability criteria'': the performance of the model in reproducing present-day climate (''model performance'' criterion) and the convergence of the simulated changes across models (''model convergence'' criterion). The REA method is applied to mean seasonal temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the twenty-first century, over 22 land regions of the world, as simulated…

• NC
  National Center for Atmospheric Research
• MO
  Met Office