Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Los Alamos National Laboratory · Cape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory / Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa · +3 more institutions
Abstract
Recent human deaths due to infection by highly pathogenic (H5N1) avian influenza A virus have raised the specter of a devastating pandemic like that of 1917-1918, should this avian virus evolve to become readily transmissible among humans. We introduce and use a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million individuals for R(0) (the basic reproductive number) from 1.6 to 2.4. We model the impact that a variety of levels and combinations of influenza antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) have on the timing and magnitude of this spread. Our…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 58.04
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 21
Authors
4- TCTimothy C. GermannCorresponding
Los Alamos National Laboratory
- KKKai Kadau
Los Alamos National Laboratory
- IMIra M. Longini
Cape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory / Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa, University of Washington, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Cancer Research Center
- CACatherine A. Macken
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Topics & keywords
- Pandemic
- Outbreak
- Influenza A virus subtype H5N1
- Population
- Virology
- Lethality
- Human mortality from H5N1
- Virus
- Good health and well-being